"""Validate synthetic wildfire smoke & respiratory outcomes dataset.""" from __future__ import annotations from pathlib import Path import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import pandas as pd SCENARIO_FILES = { "savanna_fire_belt": "wildfire_savanna_fire_belt.csv", "forest_clearing_burn": "wildfire_forest_clearing_burn.csv", "urban_peri_urban_haze": "wildfire_urban_peri_urban_haze.csv", } COLORS = { "savanna_fire_belt": "#e6550d", "forest_clearing_burn": "#31a354", "urban_peri_urban_haze": "#756bb1", } def load_data() -> pd.DataFrame: frames = [] for scenario, filename in SCENARIO_FILES.items(): df = pd.read_csv(Path("data") / filename) frames.append(df) return pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) def plot_validation(df: pd.DataFrame, output_path: Path) -> None: fig, axes = plt.subplots(4, 2, figsize=(14, 16)) axes = axes.flatten() # Panel 1: PM2.5 total by scenario for s in SCENARIO_FILES: subset = df[df["scenario"] == s] axes[0].hist(subset["pm25_total_ugm3"], bins=40, alpha=0.5, color=COLORS[s], label=s) axes[0].set_title("PM2.5 Total Distribution by Scenario") axes[0].set_xlabel("PM2.5 (µg/m³)") axes[0].legend(fontsize=7) # Panel 2: Seasonality - PM2.5 by month for s in SCENARIO_FILES: subset = df[df["scenario"] == s] monthly = subset.groupby("month")["pm25_total_ugm3"].mean() axes[1].plot(monthly.index, monthly.values, marker="o", color=COLORS[s], label=s) axes[1].set_title("Monthly PM2.5 Trend") axes[1].set_xlabel("Month") axes[1].set_ylabel("Mean PM2.5") axes[1].legend(fontsize=7) # Panel 3: Respiratory symptoms by scenario symptom_cols = ["cough", "wheeze", "dyspnoea", "eye_irritation"] symptom_rates = df.groupby("scenario")[symptom_cols].mean() * 100 symptom_rates.plot(kind="bar", ax=axes[2]) axes[2].set_title("Respiratory Symptom Prevalence (%)") axes[2].set_ylabel("Percent") axes[2].legend(fontsize=7) # Panel 4: Exposure risk vs ARI for s in SCENARIO_FILES: subset = df[df["scenario"] == s] axes[3].scatter( subset["exposure_risk_score"], subset["ari_episode"], s=6, alpha=0.1, color=COLORS[s], label=s, ) axes[3].set_title("Exposure Risk Score vs ARI Episode") axes[3].set_xlabel("Exposure risk score") axes[3].set_ylabel("ARI episode") axes[3].legend(fontsize=7) # Panel 5: Vulnerability index distribution for s in SCENARIO_FILES: subset = df[df["scenario"] == s] axes[4].hist(subset["vulnerability_index"], bins=20, alpha=0.5, color=COLORS[s], label=s) axes[4].set_title("Vulnerability Index Distribution") axes[4].set_xlabel("Vulnerability index") axes[4].legend(fontsize=7) # Panel 6: Health outcomes cascade cascade_cols = ["ari_episode", "er_visit", "hospitalised", "mortality"] cascade = df.groupby("scenario")[cascade_cols].mean() * 100 cascade.plot(kind="bar", ax=axes[5]) axes[5].set_title("Health Outcomes Cascade (%)") axes[5].set_ylabel("Percent") axes[5].legend(fontsize=7) # Panel 7: AQI category distribution aqi_counts = df.groupby(["scenario", "aqi_category"]).size().groupby(level=0).apply(lambda s: s / s.sum()) aqi_counts.unstack().plot(kind="bar", stacked=True, ax=axes[6]) axes[6].set_title("AQI Category Distribution") axes[6].set_ylabel("Share") axes[6].legend(fontsize=6) # Panel 8: Fire proximity vs PM2.5 fire_season = df[df["in_fire_season"] == 1] for s in SCENARIO_FILES: subset = fire_season[fire_season["scenario"] == s] axes[7].scatter( subset["fire_proximity_km"], subset["pm25_smoke_ugm3"], s=6, alpha=0.15, color=COLORS[s], label=s, ) axes[7].set_title("Fire Proximity vs Smoke PM2.5 (fire season)") axes[7].set_xlabel("Fire proximity (km)") axes[7].set_ylabel("PM2.5 smoke (µg/m³)") axes[7].legend(fontsize=7) plt.tight_layout() fig.savefig(output_path, dpi=200) plt.close(fig) def main() -> None: df = load_data() output_path = Path("validation_report.png") plot_validation(df, output_path) print(f"Saved {output_path}") if __name__ == "__main__": main()