As the French mathematician Nicolas Bouleau observed in a 2013 paper, “markets cannot spell out trends; it is absolutely impossible on an ontological level.” If resource-related trends were discernible from outcomes in financial markets, those who could see them would trade accordingly and the trends would disappear.
Au contraire, plus l’incertitude est grande au sujet de la rareté de cette ressource, plus son prix fluctue, ce qui ne fait qu’ajouter à la difficulté d’établir un programme.