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The dataset generation failed
Error code: DatasetGenerationError
Exception: TypeError
Message: Couldn't cast array of type string to null
Traceback: Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1872, in _prepare_split_single
for key, table in generator:
^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/packaged_modules/json/json.py", line 289, in _generate_tables
self._cast_table(pa_table, json_field_paths=json_field_paths),
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/packaged_modules/json/json.py", line 124, in _cast_table
pa_table = table_cast(pa_table, self.info.features.arrow_schema)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2272, in table_cast
return cast_table_to_schema(table, schema)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2224, in cast_table_to_schema
cast_array_to_feature(
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 1795, in wrapper
return pa.chunked_array([func(chunk, *args, **kwargs) for chunk in array.chunks])
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 2086, in cast_array_to_feature
return array_cast(
^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 1797, in wrapper
return func(array, *args, **kwargs)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/table.py", line 1948, in array_cast
raise TypeError(f"Couldn't cast array of type {_short_str(array.type)} to {_short_str(pa_type)}")
TypeError: Couldn't cast array of type string to null
The above exception was the direct cause of the following exception:
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 1347, in compute_config_parquet_and_info_response
parquet_operations = convert_to_parquet(builder)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/src/services/worker/src/worker/job_runners/config/parquet_and_info.py", line 980, in convert_to_parquet
builder.download_and_prepare(
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 884, in download_and_prepare
self._download_and_prepare(
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 947, in _download_and_prepare
self._prepare_split(split_generator, **prepare_split_kwargs)
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1739, in _prepare_split
for job_id, done, content in self._prepare_split_single(
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
File "/usr/local/lib/python3.12/site-packages/datasets/builder.py", line 1925, in _prepare_split_single
raise DatasetGenerationError("An error occurred while generating the dataset") from e
datasets.exceptions.DatasetGenerationError: An error occurred while generating the datasetNeed help to make the dataset viewer work? Make sure to review how to configure the dataset viewer, and open a discussion for direct support.
market_id string | question string | event_slug string | category string | domain null | cutoff_timestamp timestamp[s] | hours_remaining float64 | condition string | split string | prompt_version string | prompt string | has_chart bool | chart_path null | has_war_map bool | war_map_path null | current_price float64 | labels unknown | outcome int64 | end_date timestamp[s] | baseline_nochange dict | baseline_momentum dict | volume_at_cutoff_24h float64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
580839 | More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? | more-eu-sanctions-on-russia-by-september-30 | September 30 | null | 2025-08-30T19:00:00 | 725 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanction... | false | null | false | null | 0.755 | {
"6h": 0.735,
"12h": 0.735,
"1d": 0.74,
"2d": 0.775,
"3d": 0.765,
"5d": 0.78,
"7d": 0.755
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T00:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.755,
"12h": 0.755,
"1d": 0.755,
"2d": 0.755,
"3d": 0.755,
"5d": 0.755,
"7d": 0.755
} | {
"6h": 0.7588,
"12h": 0.7627,
"1d": 0.7704,
"2d": 0.7857,
"3d": 0.8011,
"5d": 0.8318,
"7d": 0.8625
} | 306.77 |
580839 | More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? | more-eu-sanctions-on-russia-by-september-30 | September 30 | null | 2025-09-03T16:00:00 | 632 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanction... | false | null | false | null | 0.75 | {
"6h": 0.785,
"12h": 0.785,
"1d": 0.78,
"2d": 0.745,
"3d": 0.75,
"5d": 0.79,
"7d": 0.8200000000000001
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T00:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.75,
"12h": 0.75,
"1d": 0.75,
"2d": 0.75,
"3d": 0.75,
"5d": 0.75,
"7d": 0.75
} | {
"6h": 0.7493,
"12h": 0.7487,
"1d": 0.7473,
"2d": 0.7447,
"3d": 0.742,
"5d": 0.7367,
"7d": 0.7314
} | 331.04 |
580839 | More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? | more-eu-sanctions-on-russia-by-september-30 | September 30 | null | 2025-09-07T13:00:00 | 539 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanction... | false | null | false | null | 0.735 | {
"6h": 0.74,
"12h": 0.74,
"1d": 0.79,
"2d": 0.715,
"3d": 0.745,
"5d": 0.64,
"7d": 0.49
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T00:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.735,
"12h": 0.735,
"1d": 0.735,
"2d": 0.735,
"3d": 0.735,
"5d": 0.735,
"7d": 0.735
} | {
"6h": 0.7352,
"12h": 0.7354,
"1d": 0.7358,
"2d": 0.7367,
"3d": 0.7375,
"5d": 0.7391,
"7d": 0.7408
} | 416.53 |
580839 | More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? | more-eu-sanctions-on-russia-by-september-30 | September 30 | null | 2025-09-11T09:00:00 | 447 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanction... | false | null | false | null | 0.775 | {
"6h": 0.64,
"12h": 0.655,
"1d": 0.745,
"2d": 0.655,
"3d": 0.645,
"5d": 0.23500000000000001,
"7d": 0.135
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T00:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.775,
"12h": 0.775,
"1d": 0.775,
"2d": 0.775,
"3d": 0.775,
"5d": 0.775,
"7d": 0.775
} | {
"6h": 0.7747,
"12h": 0.7744,
"1d": 0.7738,
"2d": 0.7727,
"3d": 0.7715,
"5d": 0.7692,
"7d": 0.7668
} | 1,223.74 |
580839 | More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? | more-eu-sanctions-on-russia-by-september-30 | September 30 | null | 2025-09-15T06:00:00 | 354 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanction... | false | null | false | null | 0.59 | {
"6h": 0.605,
"12h": 0.59,
"1d": 0.305,
"2d": 0.24,
"3d": 0.12,
"5d": 0.31,
"7d": 0.29
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T00:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.59,
"12h": 0.59,
"1d": 0.59,
"2d": 0.59,
"3d": 0.59,
"5d": 0.59,
"7d": 0.59
} | {
"6h": 0.5833,
"12h": 0.5766,
"1d": 0.5632,
"2d": 0.5364,
"3d": 0.5096,
"5d": 0.456,
"7d": 0.4023
} | 795.2 |
580839 | More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? | more-eu-sanctions-on-russia-by-september-30 | September 30 | null | 2025-09-19T03:00:00 | 261 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanction... | false | null | false | null | 0.415 | {
"6h": 0.41500000000000004,
"12h": 0.395,
"1d": 0.305,
"2d": 0.26,
"3d": 0.30000000000000004,
"5d": 0.145,
"7d": 0.105
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T00:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.415,
"12h": 0.415,
"1d": 0.415,
"2d": 0.415,
"3d": 0.415,
"5d": 0.415,
"7d": 0.415
} | {
"6h": 0.3942,
"12h": 0.3734,
"1d": 0.3319,
"2d": 0.2488,
"3d": 0.1657,
"5d": 0.01,
"7d": 0.01
} | 4,196.84 |
519628 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july | null | 2025-02-09T13:00:00 | 3,383 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.435 | {
"6h": 0.41500000000000004,
"12h": 0.385,
"1d": 0.385,
"2d": 0.355,
"3d": 0.425,
"5d": 0.555,
"7d": 0.625
} | 0 | 2025-06-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.435,
"12h": 0.435,
"1d": 0.435,
"2d": 0.435,
"3d": 0.435,
"5d": 0.435,
"7d": 0.435
} | {
"6h": 0.4398,
"12h": 0.4445,
"1d": 0.454,
"2d": 0.4731,
"3d": 0.4921,
"5d": 0.5302,
"7d": 0.5682
} | 2,327.82 | |
519628 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july | null | 2025-02-26T07:00:00 | 2,981 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.565 | {
"6h": 0.55,
"12h": 0.54,
"1d": 0.525,
"2d": 0.53,
"3d": 0.45,
"5d": 0.425,
"7d": 0.525
} | 0 | 2025-06-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.565,
"12h": 0.565,
"1d": 0.565,
"2d": 0.565,
"3d": 0.565,
"5d": 0.565,
"7d": 0.565
} | {
"6h": 0.5682,
"12h": 0.5713,
"1d": 0.5777,
"2d": 0.5904,
"3d": 0.6031,
"5d": 0.6285,
"7d": 0.6538
} | 165,942.42 | |
519628 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july | null | 2025-03-15T01:00:00 | 2,579 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.605 | {
"6h": 0.595,
"12h": 0.585,
"1d": 0.5750000000000001,
"2d": 0.605,
"3d": 0.605,
"5d": 0.515,
"7d": 0.5
} | 0 | 2025-06-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.605,
"12h": 0.605,
"1d": 0.605,
"2d": 0.605,
"3d": 0.605,
"5d": 0.605,
"7d": 0.605
} | {
"6h": 0.6083,
"12h": 0.6117,
"1d": 0.6183,
"2d": 0.6316,
"3d": 0.6449,
"5d": 0.6715,
"7d": 0.6981
} | 90,253.05 | |
519628 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july | null | 2025-03-31T19:00:00 | 2,177 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.3 | {
"6h": 0.295,
"12h": 0.28500000000000003,
"1d": 0.275,
"2d": 0.215,
"3d": 0.21,
"5d": 0.215,
"7d": 0.245
} | 0 | 2025-06-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.3,
"12h": 0.3,
"1d": 0.3,
"2d": 0.3,
"3d": 0.3,
"5d": 0.3,
"7d": 0.3
} | {
"6h": 0.2928,
"12h": 0.2855,
"1d": 0.271,
"2d": 0.2421,
"3d": 0.2131,
"5d": 0.1551,
"7d": 0.0972
} | 43,574.31 | |
519628 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july | null | 2025-04-17T12:00:00 | 1,776 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.175 | {
"6h": 0.225,
"12h": 0.225,
"1d": 0.22,
"2d": 0.25,
"3d": 0.28,
"5d": 0.27,
"7d": 0.295
} | 0 | 2025-06-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.175,
"12h": 0.175,
"1d": 0.175,
"2d": 0.175,
"3d": 0.175,
"5d": 0.175,
"7d": 0.175
} | {
"6h": 0.1732,
"12h": 0.1714,
"1d": 0.1678,
"2d": 0.1605,
"3d": 0.1533,
"5d": 0.1388,
"7d": 0.1243
} | 26,747.54 | |
519628 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july | null | 2025-05-04T06:00:00 | 1,374 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.215 | {
"6h": 0.22,
"12h": 0.225,
"1d": 0.215,
"2d": 0.20500000000000002,
"3d": 0.20500000000000002,
"5d": 0.20500000000000002,
"7d": 0.29
} | 0 | 2025-06-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.215,
"12h": 0.215,
"1d": 0.215,
"2d": 0.215,
"3d": 0.215,
"5d": 0.215,
"7d": 0.215
} | {
"6h": 0.2081,
"12h": 0.2012,
"1d": 0.1873,
"2d": 0.1597,
"3d": 0.132,
"5d": 0.0767,
"7d": 0.0214
} | 16,428.99 | |
519628 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july | null | 2025-05-21T00:00:00 | 972 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.16 | {
"6h": 0.155,
"12h": 0.12,
"1d": 0.135,
"2d": 0.095,
"3d": 0.095,
"5d": 0.085,
"7d": 0.075
} | 0 | 2025-06-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.16,
"12h": 0.16,
"1d": 0.16,
"2d": 0.16,
"3d": 0.16,
"5d": 0.16,
"7d": 0.16
} | {
"6h": 0.1543,
"12h": 0.1486,
"1d": 0.1372,
"2d": 0.1145,
"3d": 0.0917,
"5d": 0.0462,
"7d": 0.01
} | 76,780.07 | |
519628 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-july | null | 2025-06-06T06:00:00 | 582 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.0315 | {
"6h": 0.0315,
"12h": 0.0315,
"1d": 0.030500000000000003,
"2d": 0.029500000000000002,
"3d": 0.028,
"5d": 0.027,
"7d": 0.023
} | 0 | 2025-06-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.0315,
"12h": 0.0315,
"1d": 0.0315,
"2d": 0.0315,
"3d": 0.0315,
"5d": 0.0315,
"7d": 0.0315
} | {
"6h": 0.0279,
"12h": 0.0244,
"1d": 0.0172,
"2d": 0.01,
"3d": 0.01,
"5d": 0.01,
"7d": 0.01
} | 52,528.92 | |
539788 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-june | null | 2025-04-30T21:00:00 | 735 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.18 | {
"6h": 0.2,
"12h": 0.19,
"1d": 0.15,
"2d": 0.105,
"3d": 0.1,
"5d": 0.085,
"7d": 0.115
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.18,
"12h": 0.18,
"1d": 0.18,
"2d": 0.18,
"3d": 0.18,
"5d": 0.18,
"7d": 0.18
} | {
"6h": 0.1757,
"12h": 0.1714,
"1d": 0.1628,
"2d": 0.1457,
"3d": 0.1285,
"5d": 0.0941,
"7d": 0.0598
} | 32,450.78 | |
539788 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-june | null | 2025-05-04T19:00:00 | 641 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.095 | {
"6h": 0.105,
"12h": 0.095,
"1d": 0.095,
"2d": 0.12,
"3d": 0.115,
"5d": 0.125,
"7d": 0.20500000000000002
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.095,
"12h": 0.095,
"1d": 0.095,
"2d": 0.095,
"3d": 0.095,
"5d": 0.095,
"7d": 0.095
} | {
"6h": 0.088,
"12h": 0.0811,
"1d": 0.0672,
"2d": 0.0394,
"3d": 0.0116,
"5d": 0.01,
"7d": 0.01
} | 30,831.79 | |
539788 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-june | null | 2025-05-08T18:00:00 | 546 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.085 | {
"6h": 0.095,
"12h": 0.085,
"1d": 0.095,
"2d": 0.16,
"3d": 0.19,
"5d": 0.185,
"7d": 0.085
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.085,
"12h": 0.085,
"1d": 0.085,
"2d": 0.085,
"3d": 0.085,
"5d": 0.085,
"7d": 0.085
} | {
"6h": 0.0845,
"12h": 0.084,
"1d": 0.083,
"2d": 0.0811,
"3d": 0.0791,
"5d": 0.0752,
"7d": 0.0713
} | 25,310.41 | |
539788 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-june | null | 2025-05-12T16:00:00 | 452 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.195 | {
"6h": 0.185,
"12h": 0.185,
"1d": 0.185,
"2d": 0.17,
"3d": 0.085,
"5d": 0.059500000000000004,
"7d": 0.037
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.195,
"12h": 0.195,
"1d": 0.195,
"2d": 0.195,
"3d": 0.195,
"5d": 0.195,
"7d": 0.195
} | {
"6h": 0.1987,
"12h": 0.2023,
"1d": 0.2097,
"2d": 0.2244,
"3d": 0.239,
"5d": 0.2684,
"7d": 0.2977
} | 159,854.05 | |
539788 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-june | null | 2025-05-16T15:00:00 | 357 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.0395 | {
"6h": 0.0415,
"12h": 0.041,
"1d": 0.061500000000000006,
"2d": 0.0795,
"3d": 0.069,
"5d": 0.018500000000000003,
"7d": 0.016
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.0395,
"12h": 0.0395,
"1d": 0.0395,
"2d": 0.0395,
"3d": 0.0395,
"5d": 0.0395,
"7d": 0.0395
} | {
"6h": 0.0371,
"12h": 0.0347,
"1d": 0.03,
"2d": 0.0205,
"3d": 0.011,
"5d": 0.01,
"7d": 0.01
} | 93,375.57 | |
539788 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-june | null | 2025-05-20T13:00:00 | 263 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a ... | false | null | false | null | 0.023 | {
"6h": 0.0175,
"12h": 0.043000000000000003,
"1d": 0.0175,
"2d": 0.012,
"3d": 0.021,
"5d": 0.018500000000000003,
"7d": 0.0105
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.023,
"12h": 0.023,
"1d": 0.023,
"2d": 0.023,
"3d": 0.023,
"5d": 0.023,
"7d": 0.023
} | {
"6h": 0.0176,
"12h": 0.0123,
"1d": 0.01,
"2d": 0.01,
"3d": 0.01,
"5d": 0.01,
"7d": 0.01
} | 171,278.57 | |
537194 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | null | 2025-05-03T16:00:00 | 3,596 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as... | false | null | false | null | 0.405 | {
"6h": 0.41000000000000003,
"12h": 0.395,
"1d": 0.4,
"2d": 0.395,
"3d": 0.395,
"5d": 0.33,
"7d": 0.47000000000000003
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.405,
"12h": 0.405,
"1d": 0.405,
"2d": 0.405,
"3d": 0.405,
"5d": 0.405,
"7d": 0.405
} | {
"6h": 0.3993,
"12h": 0.3937,
"1d": 0.3823,
"2d": 0.3597,
"3d": 0.337,
"5d": 0.2917,
"7d": 0.2464
} | 7,417.4 | |
537194 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | null | 2025-05-21T12:00:00 | 3,168 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as... | false | null | false | null | 0.36 | {
"6h": 0.295,
"12h": 0.30000000000000004,
"1d": 0.275,
"2d": 0.28500000000000003,
"3d": 0.275,
"5d": 0.275,
"7d": 0.255
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.36,
"12h": 0.36,
"1d": 0.36,
"2d": 0.36,
"3d": 0.36,
"5d": 0.36,
"7d": 0.36
} | {
"6h": 0.3567,
"12h": 0.3534,
"1d": 0.3468,
"2d": 0.3335,
"3d": 0.3203,
"5d": 0.2938,
"7d": 0.2673
} | 7,118.28 | |
537194 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | null | 2025-06-08T09:00:00 | 2,739 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as... | false | null | false | null | 0.155 | {
"6h": 0.155,
"12h": 0.145,
"1d": 0.145,
"2d": 0.145,
"3d": 0.145,
"5d": 0.14,
"7d": 0.155
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.155,
"12h": 0.155,
"1d": 0.155,
"2d": 0.155,
"3d": 0.155,
"5d": 0.155,
"7d": 0.155
} | {
"6h": 0.1503,
"12h": 0.1456,
"1d": 0.1362,
"2d": 0.1174,
"3d": 0.0986,
"5d": 0.061,
"7d": 0.0234
} | 3,275.07 | |
537194 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | null | 2025-06-26T05:00:00 | 2,311 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as... | false | null | false | null | 0.165 | {
"6h": 0.165,
"12h": 0.17,
"1d": 0.185,
"2d": 0.20500000000000002,
"3d": 0.165,
"5d": 0.17,
"7d": 0.135
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.165,
"12h": 0.165,
"1d": 0.165,
"2d": 0.165,
"3d": 0.165,
"5d": 0.165,
"7d": 0.165
} | {
"6h": 0.1641,
"12h": 0.1632,
"1d": 0.1615,
"2d": 0.158,
"3d": 0.1545,
"5d": 0.1475,
"7d": 0.1405
} | 14,915.75 | |
537194 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | null | 2025-07-14T02:00:00 | 1,882 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as... | false | null | false | null | 0.085 | {
"6h": 0.085,
"12h": 0.095,
"1d": 0.115,
"2d": 0.105,
"3d": 0.105,
"5d": 0.095,
"7d": 0.105
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.085,
"12h": 0.085,
"1d": 0.085,
"2d": 0.085,
"3d": 0.085,
"5d": 0.085,
"7d": 0.085
} | {
"6h": 0.0844,
"12h": 0.0837,
"1d": 0.0825,
"2d": 0.0799,
"3d": 0.0774,
"5d": 0.0723,
"7d": 0.0672
} | 7,333.27 | |
537194 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | null | 2025-07-31T10:00:00 | 1,466 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as... | false | null | false | null | 0.105 | {
"6h": 0.105,
"12h": 0.135,
"1d": 0.135,
"2d": 0.125,
"3d": 0.115,
"5d": 0.115,
"7d": 0.17
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.105,
"12h": 0.105,
"1d": 0.105,
"2d": 0.105,
"3d": 0.105,
"5d": 0.105,
"7d": 0.105
} | {
"6h": 0.1046,
"12h": 0.1042,
"1d": 0.1033,
"2d": 0.1016,
"3d": 0.0999,
"5d": 0.0965,
"7d": 0.0931
} | 20,154.31 | |
537194 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | null | 2025-08-18T19:00:00 | 1,025 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as... | false | null | false | null | 0.235 | {
"6h": 0.195,
"12h": 0.185,
"1d": 0.165,
"2d": 0.165,
"3d": 0.085,
"5d": 0.085,
"7d": 0.075
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.235,
"12h": 0.235,
"1d": 0.235,
"2d": 0.235,
"3d": 0.235,
"5d": 0.235,
"7d": 0.235
} | {
"6h": 0.2338,
"12h": 0.2327,
"1d": 0.2304,
"2d": 0.2257,
"3d": 0.2211,
"5d": 0.2118,
"7d": 0.2026
} | 134,056.62 | |
537194 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-october | null | 2025-09-04T15:00:00 | 621 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as... | false | null | false | null | 0.036 | {
"6h": 0.034,
"12h": 0.035,
"1d": 0.035500000000000004,
"2d": 0.029500000000000002,
"3d": 0.0275,
"5d": 0.0245,
"7d": 0.0285
} | 0 | 2025-09-30T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.036,
"12h": 0.036,
"1d": 0.036,
"2d": 0.036,
"3d": 0.036,
"5d": 0.036,
"7d": 0.036
} | {
"6h": 0.0349,
"12h": 0.0339,
"1d": 0.0317,
"2d": 0.0275,
"3d": 0.0232,
"5d": 0.0147,
"7d": 0.01
} | 6,150.95 | |
539202 | Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? | will-trump-pull-out-of-russia-x-ukraine-negotiations-before-june | null | 2025-04-28T23:00:00 | 781 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June?
Description: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration offi... | false | null | false | null | 0.23 | {
"6h": 0.21,
"12h": 0.21,
"1d": 0.23500000000000001,
"2d": 0.23,
"3d": 0.14,
"5d": 0.20500000000000002,
"7d": 0.19
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.23,
"12h": 0.23,
"1d": 0.23,
"2d": 0.23,
"3d": 0.23,
"5d": 0.23,
"7d": 0.23
} | {
"6h": 0.224,
"12h": 0.218,
"1d": 0.2061,
"2d": 0.1822,
"3d": 0.1583,
"5d": 0.1105,
"7d": 0.0627
} | 3,200.06 | |
539202 | Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? | will-trump-pull-out-of-russia-x-ukraine-negotiations-before-june | null | 2025-05-03T05:00:00 | 679 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June?
Description: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration offi... | false | null | false | null | 0.23 | {
"6h": 0.23,
"12h": 0.21,
"1d": 0.22,
"2d": 0.2,
"3d": 0.17500000000000002,
"5d": 0.105,
"7d": 0.09
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.23,
"12h": 0.23,
"1d": 0.23,
"2d": 0.23,
"3d": 0.23,
"5d": 0.23,
"7d": 0.23
} | {
"6h": 0.2337,
"12h": 0.2374,
"1d": 0.2448,
"2d": 0.2597,
"3d": 0.2745,
"5d": 0.3041,
"7d": 0.3338
} | 42,640.06 | |
539202 | Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? | will-trump-pull-out-of-russia-x-ukraine-negotiations-before-june | null | 2025-05-07T11:00:00 | 577 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June?
Description: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration offi... | false | null | false | null | 0.15 | {
"6h": 0.155,
"12h": 0.11,
"1d": 0.105,
"2d": 0.105,
"3d": 0.09,
"5d": 0.075,
"7d": 0.125
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.15,
"12h": 0.15,
"1d": 0.15,
"2d": 0.15,
"3d": 0.15,
"5d": 0.15,
"7d": 0.15
} | {
"6h": 0.1464,
"12h": 0.1428,
"1d": 0.1357,
"2d": 0.1214,
"3d": 0.107,
"5d": 0.0784,
"7d": 0.0498
} | 1,988.25 | |
539202 | Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? | will-trump-pull-out-of-russia-x-ukraine-negotiations-before-june | null | 2025-05-11T18:00:00 | 474 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June?
Description: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration offi... | false | null | false | null | 0.085 | {
"6h": 0.08,
"12h": 0.075,
"1d": 0.075,
"2d": 0.135,
"3d": 0.125,
"5d": 0.07,
"7d": 0.055
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.085,
"12h": 0.085,
"1d": 0.085,
"2d": 0.085,
"3d": 0.085,
"5d": 0.085,
"7d": 0.085
} | {
"6h": 0.0803,
"12h": 0.0757,
"1d": 0.0664,
"2d": 0.0478,
"3d": 0.0291,
"5d": 0.01,
"7d": 0.01
} | 3,783.03 | |
539202 | Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? | will-trump-pull-out-of-russia-x-ukraine-negotiations-before-june | null | 2025-05-16T00:00:00 | 372 | A | train | v4 | You are predicting a prediction market's future price. Prices range from 0.01 (market very likely resolves NO) to 0.99 (market very likely resolves YES).
## Market
Question: Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June?
Description: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration offi... | false | null | false | null | 0.075 | {
"6h": 0.075,
"12h": 0.08,
"1d": 0.07,
"2d": 0.055,
"3d": 0.145,
"5d": 0.035500000000000004,
"7d": 0.022
} | 0 | 2025-05-31T12:00:00 | {
"6h": 0.075,
"12h": 0.075,
"1d": 0.075,
"2d": 0.075,
"3d": 0.075,
"5d": 0.075,
"7d": 0.075
} | {
"6h": 0.0756,
"12h": 0.0763,
"1d": 0.0776,
"2d": 0.0801,
"3d": 0.0827,
"5d": 0.0878,
"7d": 0.0929
} | 2,932.3 |
End of preview.
UNLP Ukraine Forecasting Dataset
Prediction market forecasting dataset for 111 resolved Ukraine-related Polymarket markets with 672 frozen cutoff points and 7 fixed prediction horizons (6h, 12h, 1d, 2d, 3d, 5d, 7d).
Built by walking the exact same code path as the UNLP 2026 evaluation harness (eval/harness.py:build_prompt()), but emitting dataset rows instead of making LLM API calls. Every prompt, context block, and ground-truth label is identical to what the eval pipeline produces.
Conditions
Each cutoff is rendered under 4 information conditions:
| Condition | Context provided |
|---|---|
| A | Price summary only (blind baseline) |
| C | A + news context (48h/7d/30d article windows) |
| D | A + chart + news + cross-market context + comments |
| D_UA | D + Ukrainian sources (Telegram bloggers, casualties, Militarnyi) |
Schema
Each JSONL row contains:
Identity: market_id, question, event_slug, cutoff_timestamp, hours_remaining, condition, split
Prompt (model sees): prompt (full rendered V4 prompt, same as the harness sends to LLMs), has_chart, has_war_map
Ground truth: current_price, labels (dict mapping horizon labels to actual prices: {"6h": 0.35, ..., "7d": 0.42}), outcome (binary), end_date
Baselines: baseline_nochange (predict current price unchanged), baseline_momentum (7-day linear regression extrapolated)
Volume: volume_at_cutoff_24h (USD notional in 24h before cutoff)
Horizons
Fixed 7 prediction horizons from each cutoff:
| Label | Hours forward |
|---|---|
| 6h | 6 |
| 12h | 12 |
| 1d | 24 |
| 2d | 48 |
| 3d | 72 |
| 5d | 120 |
| 7d | 168 |
Ground truth is the actual market price at each horizon timestamp (6-hour tolerance for nearest available price point).
Scoring
MAE (Mean Absolute Error): |predicted_price - actual_price| at each horizon. Compare against:
- No-change baseline:
predicted = current_price - Momentum baseline: 7-day linear regression extrapolated forward
Stats
- 111 markets, 672 cutoffs, 4 conditions = 2,688 total examples
- Train/test split: 89/22 markets (temporal by resolution date)
- All 7 horizons have labels for every example (7.0/7 avg)
- 99% of examples have 24h volume > 0
Source
From the OpenBabylon/signal repo. Built using eval/build_unlp_dataset.py which calls the same build_prompt() and compute_labels() as the evaluation harness.
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