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value | snapshot_time int64 1.76B 1.76B | snapshot_datetime stringdate 2025-08-20 00:00:00 2025-10-07 00:00:00 | close_time int64 1.76B 1.76B | close_datetime stringdate 2025-08-21 00:31:52 2025-10-08 15:45:42 | days_until_close float64 1.02 8.7 | resolution_time int64 1.76B 1.76B | community_pred_now null | community_pred_1day null | community_pred_3day stringclasses 1
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metaculus_38596 | 38596 | What will be the value of "the market yield on US treasury securities at 3-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis" on 2025-08-28? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39254/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-dgs3-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series DGS3 is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the market yield on US treasury securities at 3-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis. The title... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series DGS3 once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,076,816 | 2025-08-24T16:06:56 | 4.671481 | 1,756,587,469 | null | null | null | null | 3.6 | 3.6 | null | true | 3.6 | 3.6 | null | 3.499 | 4.337 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38593 | 38593 | What will be the value of "the upper limit of the target range of the federal funds rate (interest rate) set by the Federal Open Market Committee" on 2025-08-27? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39251/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-dfedtaru-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series DFEDTARU is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the upper limit of the target range of the federal funds rate (interest rate) set by the Federal Open Market... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series DFEDTARU once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,959,755 | 2025-08-23T07:35:55 | 3.316609 | 1,756,587,465 | null | null | null | null | 4.5 | 4.5 | null | true | 4.5 | 4.5 | null | 4.5 | 5.5 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38592 | 38592 | What will be the value of "the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index" on 2025-08-29? | numeric | Index | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39250/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-vixcls-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series VIXCLS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index. The title of the series is "CBOE Volatility Index: VIX"... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series VIXCLS once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,222,371 | 2025-08-26T08:32:51 | 6.356146 | 1,756,853,190 | null | null | null | null | 15.36 | 15.36 | null | true | 15.36 | 15.36 | null | 14.16 | 28.75 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38591 | 38591 | What will be the value of "the Federal Reserve's overnight bank funding rate" on 2025-08-26? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39249/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-obfr-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series OBFR is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the Federal Reserve's overnight bank funding rate. The title of the series is "Overnight Bank Funding Rate". The... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series OBFR once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,943,299 | 2025-08-23T03:01:39 | 3.126146 | 1,756,587,465 | null | null | null | null | 4.33 | 4.33 | null | true | 4.33 | 4.33 | null | 4.33 | 5.33 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38589 | 38589 | What will be the value of "the price of Brent crude oil" on 2025-08-22? | numeric | Dollars per Barrel | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39247/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-dcoilbrenteu-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series DCOILBRENTEU is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the price of Brent crude oil. The title of the series is "Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe". The last da... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series DCOILBRENTEU once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,815,785 | 2025-08-21T15:36:25 | 1.650289 | 1,756,587,466 | null | null | null | null | 68.29 | 68.29 | null | true | 68.29 | 68.29 | null | 64.8635 | 80.3155 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38586 | 38586 | What will be the value of "the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the US" on 2025-08-28? | numeric | Index | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39244/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-usepuindxd-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series USEPUINDXD is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the US. The title of the series is "Economic Policy Uncertainty ... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series USEPUINDXD once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,008,424 | 2025-08-23T21:07:04 | 3.879907 | 1,756,587,472 | null | null | null | null | 243.9 | 243.9 | null | true | 243.9 | 243.9 | null | 66.18 | 676.42 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38585 | 38585 | What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BB in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market" on 2025-08-27? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39243/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlh0a1hybb-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLH0A1HYBB is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BB in the ICE BofA US High Y... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLH0A1HYBB once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,236,289 | 2025-08-26T12:24:49 | 6.517234 | 1,756,587,467 | null | null | null | null | 1.74 | 1.74 | null | true | 1.74 | 1.74 | null | 1.6 | 2.542 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38584 | 38584 | What will be the value of "the effective yield of securities with a remaining term to maturity of 7-10 years in the ICE BofA US Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt issued in the US domestic market" on 2025-08-28? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39242/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlc4a0c710yey-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLC4A0C710YEY is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the effective yield of securities with a remaining term to maturity of 7-10 years in the ICE BofA US ... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLC4A0C710YEY once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,887,162 | 2025-08-22T11:26:02 | 2.476412 | 1,756,587,465 | null | null | null | null | 5.02 | 5.02 | null | true | 5.02 | 5.02 | null | 4.839 | 5.572 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38583 | 38583 | What will be the value of "the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) set by the Federal Reserve" on 2025-08-29? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39241/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-effr-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series EFFR is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) set by the Federal Reserve. The title of the series is "Effecti... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series EFFR once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,966,507 | 2025-08-23T09:28:27 | 3.394757 | 1,756,853,190 | null | null | null | null | 4.33 | 4.33 | null | true | 4.33 | 4.33 | null | 4.33 | 5.33 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38581 | 38581 | What will be the value of "the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations" on 2025-08-29? | numeric | Billions of US Dollars | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39239/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-rrpontsyd-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series RRPONTSYD is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market o... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series RRPONTSYD once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,353,080 | 2025-08-27T20:51:20 | 7.868981 | 1,756,587,466 | null | null | null | null | 77.898 | 77.898 | null | true | 77.898 | 77.898 | null | 76.5762 | 378.56915 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38580 | 38580 | What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets non-sovereign debt within major domestic and Eurobond markets" on 2025-08-29? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39238/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlemcbpioas-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLEMCBPIOAS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the per... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLEMCBPIOAS once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,342,194 | 2025-08-27T17:49:54 | 7.742986 | 1,757,153,528 | null | null | null | null | null | 1.55 | null | true | 1.55 | 1.55 | null | 1.589 | 2.061 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38576 | 38576 | Will the community prediction be higher than 54.00% on 2025-08-26 for the Metaculus question 'Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39234/will-community-prediction-rise-for-executive-branch-in-contempt-for-not-obeying-the-supreme-court-by-jan-20-2029/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38192. If the community prediction on 2025-08-26 16:49:22 is higher than 54.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,947,967 | 2025-08-23T04:19:27 | 3.180174 | 1,756,587,425 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38573 | 38573 | Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39231/will-community-prediction-rise-for-thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 02:56:24 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,424,448 | 2025-08-28T16:40:48 | 8.695 | 1,756,587,431 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38572 | 38572 | Will the community prediction be higher than 98.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39230/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-openai-surpass-15-million-business-users-before-2030/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38867. If the community prediction on 2025-08-25 10:56:40 is higher than 98.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,814,104 | 2025-08-21T15:08:24 | 1.630833 | 1,756,587,432 | null | null | null | null | 1.0 | 1.0 | null | true | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38568 | 38568 | Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39226/will-community-prediction-rise-for-musk-removed-as-ceo-of-tesla-before-2027/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353. If the community prediction on 2025-08-24 23:09:39 is higher than 15.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,923,193 | 2025-08-22T21:26:33 | 2.893438 | 1,756,587,439 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38567 | 38567 | Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39225/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 06:27:48 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,416,921 | 2025-08-28T14:35:21 | 8.607882 | 1,756,587,439 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38563 | 38563 | Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39221/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-donald-trump-attempt-to-deport-elon-musk-before-july-1-2026/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38783. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 15:51:07 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,845,236 | 2025-08-21T23:47:16 | 1.991157 | 1,756,587,451 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38561 | 38561 | Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39219/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-maxwell-testify-on-the-epstein-files-or-trumpin-congress-before-2026/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38916. If the community prediction on 2025-08-24 05:08:06 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,761,512 | 2025-08-21T00:31:52 | 1.02213 | 1,756,587,452 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38560 | 38560 | Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39218/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-united-states-conduct-a-ground-invasion-of-iran-before-2027/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768. If the community prediction on 2025-08-27 12:08:16 is higher than 1.10%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,266,934 | 2025-08-26T20:55:34 | 6.871921 | 1,756,587,452 | null | null | null | null | 1.0 | 1.0 | null | true | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38556 | 38556 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt secure a victory in their Bundesliga fixture on August 23, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39214/will-eintracht-frankfurt-secure-a-victory-in-their-bundesliga-fixture-on-august-23-2025/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"3b755301-0fde-48ab-adf6-9c419ea7c7e7"}}` | This question concerns the Bundesliga contest featuring Eintracht Frankfurt, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 23, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the result achieved by Eintracht Frankfurt during the standard 90 minutes of play, including any additional stoppage time, but excluding extra t... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,951,446 | 2025-08-23T05:17:26 | 3.22044 | 1,756,587,472 | null | null | null | null | 1.0 | 1.0 | null | true | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38555 | 38555 | Will Ukrainian forces secure control of the specified crossroads near Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, as indicated by ISW mapping or equivalent criteria? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39213/will-ukrainian-forces-secure-control-of-the-specified-crossroads-near-vilne-and-kucheriv-yar-by-august-22-2025-as-indicated-by-isw-mapping-or-equivalent-criteria/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"363f175f-66f7-4609-903a-b2196211c889"}}` | For this question, a positive outcome will be determined if, on or before August 22, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, either of the two designated junctions—one in Vilne and one in Kucheriv Yar—are shown as at least partially under Ukrainian control on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map (https://storymaps.ar... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,844,948 | 2025-08-21T23:42:28 | 1.987824 | 1,756,587,473 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38553 | 38553 | Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave secure first place at the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz event? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39211/will-maxime-vachier-lagrave-secure-first-place-at-the-2025-saint-louis-rapid-blitz-event/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"f5419acf-af99-4e24-9d05-534b3f4a6017"}}` | Determination of this question hinges on whether Maxime Vachier-Lagrave is officially recognized as the overall winner of the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess competition. Should he be declared the champion, the answer will be "Yes"; in all other circumstances, including if another participant claims victory, the r... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,777,395 | 2025-08-21T04:56:35 | 1.205961 | 1,756,587,475 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | annulled | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38551 | 38551 | Is a monetary contribution from Drake to Team Water confirmed by August 22, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39209/is-a-monetary-contribution-from-drake-to-team-water-confirmed-by-august-22-2025/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"42ddf47b-891d-4869-921d-d9a33d33e8cb"}}` | A determination of 'Yes' will be made if, on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Friday, August 22, 2025, Drake is verified to have provided a financial donation to the Team Water initiative led by MrBeast. Verification will primarily rely on disclosures from teamwater.org, but may also incorporate direct statements fro... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,967,025 | 2025-08-23T09:37:05 | 3.400752 | 1,756,587,473 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | annulled | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38548 | 38548 | Will FSV Mainz 05 secure a victory in their match on August 24, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39206/will-fsv-mainz-05-secure-a-victory-in-their-match-on-august-24-2025/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"e65edc13-62e9-4c3a-b5eb-43cf9e4c741d"}}` | This question concerns the result of the BUN fixture featuring FSV Mainz 05, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 24, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the score at the conclusion of the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. Should FSV Mainz 05 be ahead at this point, t... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,151,807 | 2025-08-25T12:56:47 | 5.539433 | 1,756,587,473 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | annulled | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38544 | 38544 | Will the match between FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln on August 24 conclude with both teams having identical scores? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39202/will-the-match-between-fsv-mainz-05-and-1-fc-koln-on-august-24-conclude-with-both-teams-having-identical-scores/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"35557527-4ade-408d-b2df-253fb3f2608e"}}` | This question pertains to the Bundesliga fixture featuring FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln, set to commence at 9:30AM ET on August 24. Should the contest finish with both sides having accumulated the same number of goals at the final whistle, the answer will be 'Yes'. Any other result, where one team outscores the other, w... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,920,106 | 2025-08-22T20:35:06 | 2.857708 | 1,756,587,473 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38543 | 38543 | Will SC Freiburg secure a victory on August 23, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39201/will-sc-freiburg-secure-a-victory-on-august-23-2025/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"63b05e86-bc68-42e1-b603-748c6c3a5546"}}` | This question concerns the result of the Bundesliga fixture featuring SC Freiburg, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 23, 2025. The determination will be based solely on the score at the conclusion of the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. Should SC Freiburg be ahead at this p... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,854,111 | 2025-08-22T02:15:11 | 2.093877 | 1,756,587,473 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38542 | 38542 | Is a monetary contribution from Kai Cenat to Team Water recorded by August 22, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39200/is-a-monetary-contribution-from-kai-cenat-to-team-water-recorded-by-august-22-2025/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"b44536fa-bec7-4e47-acbf-d4639d1fd955"}}` | A determination will be made based on whether Kai Cenat (see: https://www.youtube.com/c/KaiCenat) is documented as having provided a financial donation to the Team Water initiative, which is associated with MrBeast, on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Friday, August 22, 2025. Verification will primarily rely on the o... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,939,136 | 2025-08-23T01:52:16 | 3.077963 | 1,756,587,474 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38541 | 38541 | Is parity the final result in the August 23rd contest between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39199/is-parity-the-final-result-in-the-august-23rd-contest-between-eintracht-frankfurt-and-werder-bremen/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"3a6c8074-b350-4e8c-9788-a9cefad1c26e"}}` | This question pertains to the Bundesliga fixture featuring Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen, set to commence at 9:30AM ET on August 23. Should the match conclude with both teams having identical scores at the end of regulation, the answer will be 'Yes'. Any other outcome, where one side finishes with a higher tall... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,905,855 | 2025-08-22T16:37:35 | 2.692766 | 1,756,587,473 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38540 | 38540 | Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39198/will-goma-be-under-the-control-of-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-on-august-25-2025/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"24ec0e88-0bcb-4a7b-aabf-3bc671c5ec90"}}` | Resolution criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that the March 23 Movement rebels have withdrawn from Goma and the Democratic Republic of the Congo is in control of the city on August 25, 2025.
Fineprint: If there is any ambiguity, this question will resolve based upon control of G... | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,890,395 | 2025-08-22T12:19:55 | 2.513831 | 1,757,153,529 | null | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | null | true | annulled | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38533 | 38533 | Will CI's market close price on 2025-08-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-27? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39191/cis-close-price-rises/ | The Cigna Group is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:19) is 296.86. You can find more information about The Cigna Group at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CI
The Cigna Group, together with its subsidiaries, prov... | This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CI. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,294,281 | 2025-08-27T04:31:21 | 7.188438 | 1,756,587,455 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38525 | 38525 | Will LHX's market close price on 2025-08-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-26? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39183/lhxs-close-price-rises/ | L3Harris Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LHX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:06) is 270.55. You can find more information about L3Harris Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LHX
L3Harris Technologies, Inc.... | This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of LHX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,169,652 | 2025-08-25T17:54:12 | 5.745972 | 1,756,587,458 | null | null | null | null | 1.0 | 1.0 | null | true | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38524 | 38524 | Will IPG's market close price on 2025-08-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-23? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39182/ipgs-close-price-rises/ | The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IPG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:05) is 26.09. You can find more information about The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IPG
Th... | This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of IPG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-23, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,755,926,044 | 2025-08-22T22:14:04 | 2.926435 | 1,756,587,458 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38520 | 38520 | Will STLD's market close price on 2025-08-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-25? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39178/stlds-close-price-rises/ | Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is STLD. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:28:58) is 126.42. You can find more information about Steel Dynamics, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STLD
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its... | This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of STLD. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API. | [] | [] | 1,755,673,200 | 2025-08-20T00:00:00 | 1,756,113,859 | 2025-08-25T02:24:19 | 5.10022 | 1,756,587,460 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38596 | 38596 | What will be the value of "the market yield on US treasury securities at 3-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis" on 2025-08-28? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39254/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-dgs3-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series DGS3 is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the market yield on US treasury securities at 3-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis. The title... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series DGS3 once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,076,816 | 2025-08-24T16:06:56 | 1.671481 | 1,756,587,469 | null | null | null | null | 3.6 | 3.6 | null | true | 3.6 | 3.6 | null | 3.499 | 4.337 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38592 | 38592 | What will be the value of "the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index" on 2025-08-29? | numeric | Index | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39250/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-vixcls-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series VIXCLS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index. The title of the series is "CBOE Volatility Index: VIX"... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series VIXCLS once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,222,371 | 2025-08-26T08:32:51 | 3.356146 | 1,756,853,190 | null | null | null | null | 15.36 | 15.36 | null | true | 15.36 | 15.36 | null | 14.16 | 28.75 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38585 | 38585 | What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BB in the ICE BofA US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of corporate debt below investment grade in the US domestic market" on 2025-08-27? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39243/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlh0a1hybb-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLH0A1HYBB is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread of securities with an investment grade rating of BB in the ICE BofA US High Y... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLH0A1HYBB once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,236,289 | 2025-08-26T12:24:49 | 3.517234 | 1,756,587,467 | null | null | null | null | 1.74 | 1.74 | null | true | 1.74 | 1.74 | null | 1.6 | 2.542 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38581 | 38581 | What will be the value of "the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations" on 2025-08-29? | numeric | Billions of US Dollars | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39239/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-rrpontsyd-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series RRPONTSYD is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market o... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series RRPONTSYD once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,353,080 | 2025-08-27T20:51:20 | 4.868981 | 1,756,587,466 | null | null | null | null | 77.898 | 77.898 | null | true | 77.898 | 77.898 | null | 76.5762 | 378.56915 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38580 | 38580 | What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets non-sovereign debt within major domestic and Eurobond markets" on 2025-08-29? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39238/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlemcbpioas-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLEMCBPIOAS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the per... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLEMCBPIOAS once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,342,194 | 2025-08-27T17:49:54 | 4.742986 | 1,757,153,528 | null | null | null | null | null | 1.55 | null | true | 1.55 | 1.55 | null | 1.589 | 2.061 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38573 | 38573 | Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39231/will-community-prediction-rise-for-thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 02:56:24 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,424,448 | 2025-08-28T16:40:48 | 5.695 | 1,756,587,431 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38567 | 38567 | Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39225/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 06:27:48 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,416,921 | 2025-08-28T14:35:21 | 5.607882 | 1,756,587,439 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38560 | 38560 | Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39218/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-united-states-conduct-a-ground-invasion-of-iran-before-2027/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768. If the community prediction on 2025-08-27 12:08:16 is higher than 1.10%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,266,934 | 2025-08-26T20:55:34 | 3.871921 | 1,756,587,452 | null | null | null | null | 1.0 | 1.0 | null | true | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38548 | 38548 | Will FSV Mainz 05 secure a victory in their match on August 24, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39206/will-fsv-mainz-05-secure-a-victory-in-their-match-on-august-24-2025/ | This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.
`{"format":"ig_question_sync","info":{"event_id":"e65edc13-62e9-4c3a-b5eb-43cf9e4c741d"}}` | This question concerns the result of the BUN fixture featuring FSV Mainz 05, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 24, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the score at the conclusion of the standard 90 minutes of play, including any added stoppage time. Should FSV Mainz 05 be ahead at this point, t... | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,151,807 | 2025-08-25T12:56:47 | 2.539433 | 1,756,587,473 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | annulled | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38533 | 38533 | Will CI's market close price on 2025-08-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-27? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39191/cis-close-price-rises/ | The Cigna Group is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:19) is 296.86. You can find more information about The Cigna Group at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CI
The Cigna Group, together with its subsidiaries, prov... | This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CI. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,294,281 | 2025-08-27T04:31:21 | 4.188438 | 1,756,587,455 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38525 | 38525 | Will LHX's market close price on 2025-08-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-26? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39183/lhxs-close-price-rises/ | L3Harris Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LHX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:29:06) is 270.55. You can find more information about L3Harris Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LHX
L3Harris Technologies, Inc.... | This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of LHX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,169,652 | 2025-08-25T17:54:12 | 2.745972 | 1,756,587,458 | null | null | null | null | 1.0 | 1.0 | null | true | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38520 | 38520 | Will STLD's market close price on 2025-08-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-25? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39178/stlds-close-price-rises/ | Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is STLD. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-18 00:28:58) is 126.42. You can find more information about Steel Dynamics, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STLD
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its... | This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of STLD. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API. | [] | [] | 1,755,932,400 | 2025-08-23T00:00:00 | 1,756,113,859 | 2025-08-25T02:24:19 | 2.10022 | 1,756,587,460 | null | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | null | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38581 | 38581 | What will be the value of "the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market operations" on 2025-08-29? | numeric | Billions of US Dollars | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39239/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-rrpontsyd-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series RRPONTSYD is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the aggregated daily value of US Treasury securities sold by the Federal Reserve in temporary open market o... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series RRPONTSYD once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,756,191,600 | 2025-08-26T00:00:00 | 1,756,353,080 | 2025-08-27T20:51:20 | 1.868981 | 1,756,587,466 | null | null | null | 77.898 | 77.898 | 77.898 | true | true | 77.898 | 77.898 | null | 76.5762 | 378.56915 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38580 | 38580 | What will be the value of "the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the performance of emerging markets non-sovereign debt within major domestic and Eurobond markets" on 2025-08-29? | numeric | Percent | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39238/what-will-the-value-of-fred-series-bamlemcbpioas-be/ | The Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) provides economic data from national, international, public, and private sources. The series BAMLEMCBPIOAS is a dataset that is tracked by the FRED API. It represents the option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index, which tracks the per... | Resolves to the value found on the FRED API for the series BAMLEMCBPIOAS once the data is published. | [] | [] | 1,756,191,600 | 2025-08-26T00:00:00 | 1,756,342,194 | 2025-08-27T17:49:54 | 1.742986 | 1,757,153,528 | null | null | null | null | 1.55 | 1.55 | null | true | 1.55 | 1.55 | null | 1.589 | 2.061 | null | true | true | null | null |
metaculus_38573 | 38573 | Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39231/will-community-prediction-rise-for-thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 02:56:24 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,756,191,600 | 2025-08-26T00:00:00 | 1,756,424,448 | 2025-08-28T16:40:48 | 2.695 | 1,756,587,431 | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | true | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_38567 | 38567 | Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?'? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39225/will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026/ | Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency.
--... | This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 06:27:48 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. | [] | [] | 1,756,191,600 | 2025-08-26T00:00:00 | 1,756,416,921 | 2025-08-28T14:35:21 | 2.607882 | 1,756,587,439 | null | null | null | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | true | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null |
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YAML Metadata Warning:The task_categories "forecasting" is not in the official list: text-classification, token-classification, table-question-answering, question-answering, zero-shot-classification, translation, summarization, feature-extraction, text-generation, fill-mask, sentence-similarity, text-to-speech, text-to-audio, automatic-speech-recognition, audio-to-audio, audio-classification, audio-text-to-text, voice-activity-detection, depth-estimation, image-classification, object-detection, image-segmentation, text-to-image, image-to-text, image-to-image, image-to-video, unconditional-image-generation, video-classification, reinforcement-learning, robotics, tabular-classification, tabular-regression, tabular-to-text, table-to-text, multiple-choice, text-ranking, text-retrieval, time-series-forecasting, text-to-video, image-text-to-text, image-text-to-image, image-text-to-video, visual-question-answering, document-question-answering, zero-shot-image-classification, graph-ml, mask-generation, zero-shot-object-detection, text-to-3d, image-to-3d, image-feature-extraction, video-text-to-text, keypoint-detection, visual-document-retrieval, any-to-any, video-to-video, other
Forecast Snapshot Dataset
Source: metaculus Data Hash: 2cc65706d0
Dataset Description
This dataset contains snapshots of prediction market data for AI agent evaluation.
Format
Each row represents a market snapshot at a specific point in time, including:
- Current community prediction
- Predictions 1 day, 3 days, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month later (or resolution)
- Final resolution (ground truth)
- Market metadata (question, close time, etc.)
Question Types
binary: Yes/No questions (scalar predictions)multiple_choice: Categorical options (array of probabilities for all options)numeric/discrete/date: Continuous predictions with percentiles
Note: In the Parquet file, arrays are stored as JSON strings. In the CSV file, arrays are stored as Python list representations.
Usage
import pandas as pd
# Load dataset (CSV or Parquet)
df = pd.read_csv("hf://datasets/chestnutforty/forecast-snapshots-metaculus-2cc65706d0/snapshot_dataset.csv")
# or
df = pd.read_parquet("hf://datasets/chestnutforty/forecast-snapshots-metaculus-2cc65706d0/snapshot_dataset.parquet")
# Filter to specific snapshot date
snapshot_date = "2025-01-01T00:00:00"
markets = df[df['snapshot_datetime'] == snapshot_date]
# Evaluate model predictions
# df['model_pred_now'] = your_model.predict(markets)
Configuration
See config.json for dataset creation parameters.
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